Tuesday, June 28, 2016

#NeverTrump? Fine, Just Don't Be Stupid

If you've been listening to scuttlebutt, you may have heard that a large faction of the #NeverTrump movement have lost their collective minds.  By which I mean: they are openly advocating that the Republican Party self-immolate rather than actually go through with nominating Donald Trump.

Oh, they won't say it that way.  "He's behind by double digits!" they'll wail.  "He can't win!" they'll cry.  "He's a poo-poo head!" they'll whine.  Okay, I may have made that last one up, but it's in line with their opinions.  In fact, they are so certain of Trump's defeat in November (just how they were certain of his defeat in the Primaries), that they are now calling for the delegates at the Republican National Convention to change the voting rules so that those delegates elected in the expectation they would vote for Donald Trump will not do so, and instead will pick some party-insider to run for President.

To its credit, the RNC seems to be saying "That's stupid, don't do that."  That's because they're the Stupid Party, not the Self-Immolation Party.

And let us be clear: that is what this is.  This really is people who didn't get their way not merely settling for taking their ball and going home, but burning down the field and jumping into the conflagration.

Let's think this through for a minute.

What do you suppose will happen if the delegates overthrow the will of the people (pesky democratic processes anyway - you know they'll let ANYONE who is 18 or over, a US Citizen, and not a felon vote?  How plebian)? 

First, you have to select another nominee.  Who?  Ted Cruz?  Already a loser (and I say that as someone who likes the man and thinks he'd be a good president).  Seriously, he already lost to Trump, why do you think he'd fare better against Hillary?  Any of the other primary candidates were named unacceptable by voters long even before Cruz.  So not one of them.  But then who?  You think someone can put together a presidential campaign on the fly?  Seriously?

But let's say you find another nominee who you believe can put together a presidential campaign at a moment's notice.  Even assuming there is no problem getting him (or her) on the ballot (and I'm not sure about that), then you face one other problem.  Seventeen million voters whose will you just spurned.

Think about that.  Donald Trump did not just win the Republican Primary.  He won with a record number of votes.  Even assuming (as I do not, actually) that some of those are "false flag" votes from Democrats who are going to vote Hillary, what about the rest?  You think those blue collar voters who were voting to "Make America Great Again" are going to say "Oh, yes, absolutely.  Those party delegates know far better than we do, why did we ever vote for Trump in the first place?"

No.  They're going to be so royally pissed off, they'll vote for Hillary out of spite.

And then what?  Even assuming Hillary doesn't plunge us into Venezuelan Darkness in 4 years, do you think those people will come back to the Republican Party?  After that betrayal?  Who did those fighting for American Independence hate more: open loyalists, or traitors like Benedict Arnold? 

No.  You will have lost them forever.  Worse, you'll probably have lost their children and grandchildren.  "Don't listen to them," they'll tell their kids, "they lie.  They'll tell you they want to represent you and support your interests, but the moment you speak up and say 'Then this man represents me,' they'll call you stupid and racist and xenophobic and stab you in the back."

So you're #NeverTrump?  I think that's stupid, but whatever.  Be #NeverTrump.  But if you are advocating for a "delegate revolt" understand that you are advocating for the Republican Party to commit suicide.

As for me?  That's what I said nearly a year ago.  Donald Trump will kill the Republican Party.  He'll either kill it from the inside - killing the power the so-called "elites" and establishment have making them once more answerable to those they're supposed to represent, or those "elites" (note the establishment seems to have come somewhat to their senses) will do it for him.

Friday, June 24, 2016

#Brexit and Donald Trump

First: Congratulations to the People of Great Britain for their courage and commitment to self-rule and local governance.  I'm glad they voted to leave the European Union; it's in their best interests.  The days ahead will be hard, and at every bump in the road talking heads will tell them how "it's their own fault" for choosing independence.  To a degree they're right: independence, self-rule, these things are hard and not without difficulty.  But they are worth far more than the fake "security" of being ruled from afar.

As the English withdrawal from the European Union is analyzed and constantly second-guessed, let me submit to you that it was inevitable, and it shows that Donald Trump has a much better chance to win in November than the Talking Heads would have you believe.  See, I believe that Brexit and the Rise of Trump are both based on the same thing - the realization by the People that their so-called leaders have failed in their actual duties.

National governments have basically two jobs - ensure a "level playing field" inside their borders and protecting their citizens from non-citizens.  That's it.  Both of these are predicated on one foundational idea that the West seems determined to abandon: "Us First."  A nation's government should always, as its first priority, put the well-being and interests of its citizens over the well-being and interests of non-citizens. 

Whether that's non-naturalized immigrants living within its population, foreign threats, foreign business, or even just healthy old international competition, a national government's first priority should be "what is in the best interests of my citizens?"

That's a harder question to answer sometimes that it might seem.  Are trade terriffs on imports good?  How about a lax or strict immigration policy?  What about (any given) war?  Not always easy.

Sometimes, however, it is easy.  Is illegal immigration good for a nation's citizens, or bad?  Bad.  There's not even a question here.  Is unchecked immigration from majority muslim countries good, or bad?  Bad.  Again, not even a question - when your best answer is "we don't know they're a threat," you're not arguing that it's good, just that it might not be as bad as feared.  Ergo: bad.

Now, most people don't even think of these things in these terms.  I'm pretty sure the average Englishman doesn't think in terms of terriffs and duties, or immigration policy.  What they do think of is: how easy it is to find a job (harder with lax immigration, and even harder with massive illegal immigration)?  How good is my standard of living (worse with poor trade policy and massive immigration)?  How safe am I in my home (worse with Muslim Terrorists moving easily about the globe, worse with illegal immigrants)?

And that brings us back to our own shores and Donald Trump.  Donald Trump resonantes with people because he understands* these things.  He understands them in his bones.  Look at his campaign slogan: "Make America Great Again."  That says it all in four words.  America was great "before."  What is "before?"  Well, that's up to the individual.  But it's not great now.  So let's make it great again. 

Let's put Americans first.  Let's say that the well being of American businesses, the American worker, is more important to us than the well being of Iraqis, Afghans, Israelis, Austrialians, the British, Canadians, or anyone else.  Let's get control of our borders - all four of them, and stop importing unskilled workers to compete with our own unskilled workforce (what, you think we didn't have one?  Everyone starts "unskilled").  Let's stop immigration from majority Muslim countries - we owe them nothing - until either Mohammedanism can tamp down on its more violent tendencies or we can find a way to screen out the terrorists.  Let's stop engaging in wars to benefit others and not ourselves.  If American boys and girls are going to die, let's make it to the benefit of the country they serve, and not just someone else.

And that's where the leaders of Great Britain (not the EU) and the United States have failed.  By allowing massive immigration (usually without requiring assimilation), we import unskilled workers to compete with our own unskilled workforce.  The EU member nations are importing terrorists - and it won't be too long before one gets over here.  The so-called leadership of Great Britain and the United States has failed to put their own citizens first, and the citizens are crying "no more."

Of course, they also said (as late as yesterday), that the Brexit would fail.

Will Donald Trump win in November?  I don't know.  People are saying he has no chance.

* - Understanding is not the same as agreeing with or supporting.  Personally, I believe he does both, but whether or not he agrees with or believes in "America First," it is clear that he - unlike the talking heads and Washington Establishment - at least understands it.