What Do Conservatives Want?

So, over at the HQ this morning, commenter jwest raised an interesting point.  His comment is too long to quote in its entirety, but the gist seems to be this:  Conservatives, especially in the blogosphere, are too ready to pull out the Long Knives whenever one of our allies (actual allies- a Perry, or Walker, or Cruz, or Lee) makes a tiny misstep.  So we should probably make some decisions, as a movement, about where we really stand.

So here are some areas he highlighted, and my thoughts on them (all quotes: sic; I'm not a proofreader).  I'll follow up with a couple more at the end.

1: Immigration/Border

On immigration, has anyone defined what the word "amnesty" means? We can't simply say "follow existing law", because than entails kicking in doors at 2am and dragging mothers away from their children (which looks bad on the evening news). It would be good to have a well written position on what true conservatives want.

Amnesty means "officially not administering just punishment for a crime."  Any "path to legalization" or "path to citizenship" is Amnesty.

Step 1 (before anything else) secure the border (or take real, substantive steps to secure it).  Step 2 Make explicit that illegal aliens are not eligible for any federal benefit, reduce Medicaid payments to States who pay State benefits for illegal aliens.  Step 3 Come down like "a ton of rectanular building things" on any employer- large or small- found to be hiring illegals.  Step 4 expedite deportation hearings, stop releasing illegals into their own recognizance.

2: ObamaCare/Health Care/Health Insurance

On healthcare, certainly everyone wants Obamacare repealed, but that's not a position. Never in the history of the U.S. has the government been able to give citizens free shit and then turn around and take it back. Those who think this is an option just aren't being serious. We need a conservative plan on what is going to replace Obamacare.

Burn it down. 
Scatter the stones. 
Salt the earth where it stood. 

The federal government has no authority over health care/health insurance.  The only space where the feds have authority is to end the prohibition on interstate sale of insurance.  Would consider making personal health insurance tax deductible, just like employer coverage... but that has issues (since I want the tax code to be much less complex).

3: Defense (esp. Defense Budget)

On defense, some are taking the position that patriotism can be gauged by how much we spend on the military. Others know that at some point, enough is enough. It's hard to make the case of being a budget hawk while handing out blank checks. We should nail this down so that voters know where we're at.

I'm sorry, Hawks, we don't have money.  I don't want to cut defense spending, but neither can we let it grow (or, at least, grow much).  Let's fix the procurement process, cut out the "diversity" stupidity, and see any other avenues available to make the defense budget more efficient.  If that's still not enough, *then* we can talk about more money.

4: Social Security

On Social Security, for decades the holy grail of the conservative side of the aisle was a plan to privatize SS. If this is still the plan, it could be marketed in such a way as to gain the black vote. Of course, our side needs to agree on plan first.

One-time payment of "your" SS money into an IRA.  Retirement planning is your business, not Daddy Government's.  For current or near retirees, we'll have to figure out a plan.  Some kind of phase-out will be necessary, but not sure exactly how that would work.

I'll add on top of that:

5: Taxes

A massively simplified tax code.  Flat tax, fair tax, even a progressive/graduated tax which is simple to understand would be far better than what we have today.  I don't think, realistically, we'll ever get a true "flat tax," and the "fair tax" scares me unless we can repeal the 16th Amendment.  Repeal the estate tax, drop corporate taxes to around 15%, stop taxing capital gains (and maybe dividends).

6: Budget

A balanced budget amendment is way over-due in this country.  Texas has one in our State Constitution, and it has contributed to tax surpluses (since people and especially businesses know that there aren't huge deficits, Texas is seen as very tax-payer friendly).

What are your thoughts?  Jwest is right- the sooner the *base* figures out our starting point, the easier it will be to judge when someone has deviated from it, and to what degree- thus (hopefully) preventing some of the circular firing squads which have led to the last two disastrous Republican presidential candidates.

Of Obamacare and the Private Sector

First let me get this out of the way: F*ck Obamacare and the horse it rode in on.

My employer's Open Enrollment period just began.  When I was hired in October last year, there were two plans- a "traditional" plan (the PPO that we've all come to know and love) and a "Select" (or something like that) plan- a High Deductible Health Plan.  As I was hired after open enrollment, I was not given an option, and was placed in the HDHP.  Given my family's medical needs this was sub-optimal, but we made it work looking forward to open enrollment when we could elect to spend a little more per paycheck and get a PPO plan with co-payments instead of the High Deductible plan.

Well, that got all blowed up.

Now, our CEO and CFO and all of those people went to great pains to tell us how the "Private Exchange" into which we've been entered is not a "Public Exchange" and therefore isn't ObamaCare.  It just *happens* to have a "Gold," "Silver," and "Bronze" level and they all just *happen* to be High Deductible plans (though the Gold Plan doesn't qualify as one for Health Savings Account purposes).  It also just *happens* that the least bad of the plans for my family would nearly double my current insurance premium.

I want it on the record that I do not blame my employer for this.  Health care sucks right now, thanks to Obamacare.  If I blame for anything it's for lying to their employees about the reasons for the sucky choices, and for hiding behind "MOAR CHOICE!" (Ooooh, we have 3 sucky plans instead of 1 good one and 1 bad one- oh, and more insurance companies.)  C'mon guys, at least man up and admit "Hey, for those of you who want/need the PPO, this is really going to suck."

However, I wanted to highlight this because of two things.  First, this is going to happen everywhere.  Where employers don't just drop coverage entirely, they are all going to be forced to move to these kinds of plans because the insurance carriers are going to have to raise rates for everything to cover their increased costs under Obamacare.  I would feel worse for the insurance companies, but many of them supported Obamacare.  Now my family and I are trapped in the middle.

Second is this: this was an entirely predictable occurrence.  Many of us on the right said this would happen, and we were told that we were being "scare mongers" and "conspiracy theorists."  The SCOAMT, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid forced this on the American People, and it's going to kill us.

"Yeah, that's old news," you say, and you're right.  That is old news.  So is this, but it bears highlighting as well-  Republicans are being way too weak-kneed about pushing for full repeal.  There is no "fix" here.  It must be utterly and completely destroyed.  As I've pointed out before, those "popular" provisions of the law are some of the worst.  Anything less than full repeal is unacceptable, because anything less than full repeal will *still* kill the best health care system in the world.

Obamacare:

Burn it down.Scatter the stones.Salt the earth where it stood.

Adverse Selection v Moral Hazard

Winner: Moral Hazard.

What the heck am I talking about?  ObamaCare.  Specifically, we're discussing the fact that ObamaCare requires that the young and healthy make up a significant portion of enrollees.  For ObamaCare to "succeed" in any sense of the word (right now, it's failing in every sense of the word), young, healthy people must sign up in droves, paying much higher premiums for much worse coverage than they could have gotten just a year ago.  Those who already had insurance will often look at the new numbers and say, "never mind."  Those who didn't already have coverage are not suddenly going to think it's a great idea to pay yet more than they'd already rejected.

The choice to do something against your own good is called "Adverse Selection."  ObamaCare relies heavily on Adverse Selection by Millennials.

On the other hand, we have "Moral Hazard."  Moral Hazard is a situation in which one makes different decisions based on the "rules" in order to gain the maximum benefit at the minimum cost.  In the world of D&D we call this "min-maxing."  With ObamaCare the idea looks like this- insurance companies cannot reject me because of any health reason, and preexisting conditions must be covered.  Given the high premiums for substandard benefits compared to the low level of "punishment" that is the Penalty (or Tax, if you're CJ John Roberts) for non-compliance with the individual mandate, it makes far more sense to go without insurance and the penalty.  If you *do* happen to get sick (in a way that costs more than your premium and deductible combined) then you can sign up for insurance at that time and, poof, you're covered.

This is a no brainer.  Why would a healthy Millennial buy insurance through the exchanges?  Pay higher prices for less coverage just so some geriatric patient in Walla Walla can afford their meds?  Obviously the people who wrote this law don't understand human nature (except they do- more on that in a minute).  Oh, certainly some will buy.  Some will think it's a "hedge against disaster" (but, by the current rules, it's not).  Some will think it's "the moral thing to do" (really?  I'm morally obligated to buy insurance so some other guy's insurance will be cheaper?  Wouldn't it be cheaper for me just to send him 50 bucks a month?)  But the vast majority will look at their ever-diminishing buying-power (thanks ObamaNomics!) and make the practical decision to forego insurance.

If this were a boxing match, Moral Hazard would win in 1.2 seconds.  Or would be ejected for hitting below the belt.  One or the other.

Now, previously I stated that the people who wrote ObamaCare don't understand human nature.  That was what we call "dramatic license" or "a lie."  Of course they understand human nature.  In fact, they're counting on it.  Remember what Obama himself said- ObamaCare would be "a first step" to single payer.

Never forget that is their end goal.  They PLAN for ObamaCare to fail.  They want Medicaid overloaded so that the states can't cope.  They want private companies that sell through the exchanges to go under.  They want everything to collapse so that the American People will yell "Save Us!!!!" and then they can implement single payer.

In response, we have two options.  The first is to try to overcome human nature and go all-in on ObamaCare.  Make it work despite itself.  The problems with that plan don't even bear investigating, but let's just say they're myriad.

The second option is to make sure everyone knows that A) ObamaCare is a complete failure, B) Democrats own it completely, and C) that it is those same Democrats who will come in with "single payer" to make it all better.  That is, we have to expose the ploy now, not wait until Democrats are already calling for single payer.  Just as we called out all of the flaws in ObamaCare starting 3 years ago, now we ALSO have to call out their next move.

Conservatives (and coincidentally Republicans) have a lot of credibility on this right now.  Everyone knows Conservatives were saying exactly what has happened would happen.  Even the MFM has to admit it- albeit in terms of "they sabotaged the law!!!!"- so when Conservatives are challenged about single payer being the next step, it should be fairly easy to rejoin, "Just like we were wrong about you not being able to keep your plan or your doctor?  Just like we were wrong about premiums going up and benefits going down?"

If we don't use that credibility now- if we don't establish it as firm fact- then the Democrats will win on the issue.  Single Payer- and all its nightmarish horror- will become law in the United States of America.  Possibly in my lifetime.