Swing States

So we know the national economy is bad, but what, exactly does that mean.  If the truism "It's the Economy, Stupid" is correct, that bodes ill for the President.  However, it's only [i]partially[/i] the economy.  There are certain states that won't be swayed whatever the current economic situation.

Texas isn't going blue.  New York isn't going red.  So, just as the campaigns are doing, let's take a look at "things on the ground."  This will require looking at State Government and State UE for swing states.  For these purposes, I'll look at: Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.  We'll look at which party holds the Governor's seat, which holds the legislature, and the state UE numbers according to The Department of Numbers, which does not reflect today's updates.

Colorado:
Governor: D
Legislature: Mixed
Unemployment: 8.3% - National Average

Florida:
Governor: R
Legislature: R
Unemployment: 8.8% (+.5%)

New Hampshire:
Governor: D
Legislature: R
Unemployment: 5.4% (-2.9%)

North Carolina:
Governor: D
Legislature: R
Unemployment: 9.6% (+1.3%)

Ohio:
Governor: R
Legislature: R
Unemployment: 7.2% (-1.1%)

Virginia:
Governor: R
Legislature: R
Unemployment: 5.9% (-2.4%)

Based on these, it looks like Republicans probably have a lot of persuading to do in Florida, though they're not far off the national average.  Colorado, New Hampshire, and North Carolina will be real fights for both parties, though Republicans probably have the edge based on the national economy.  Ohio and Virginia, however, should be Republican locks.  It's hard to argue against the party that has led your State economy to outperform the the national economy by more than one full percentage point.

This should greatly concern Democrats (since I don't see that they really have an economic edge in any of these), but Republicans also should not get complacent, even in Ohio and Virginia.

The biggest take away, though, is that in the three states completely controlled by Republicans, one is near the national average, and the other two outperform by considerable margins.  Only New Hampshire does better, and even they have a Republican Legislature.

If it really is "the Economy, stupid" then I believe Romney and Ryan need to point to this as well- those states which are governed only by Republicans (using our sample) outperform the national economy 67% of the time, and by an average of one full percentage point, even factoring in the one which under-performs.

That's a good case for Republican economic leadership.