Thursday, October 11, 2012

BLS Reports False Unemployment Claim Numbers

One "Large State" Did Not Report

Via the Wall Street Journal.

The New Unemployment Claims numbers came out today.  By any rational measure, they're still dismal.  Democrats are crowing that it's "the lowest in 4 years."  Yeah, that's great, except that, as I recall, 4 years ago was October 2008, just as the crash was beginning.  We're not talking good numbers.  Indeed, over a third of a million families- 339,000- have someone who has lost their job since last week.

But here's the kicker.  That number is wrong.  The BLS knows the number is wrong.  According to the WSJ report, the BLS even admits this: one "large" state did not report its quarterly numbers as expected.  That means we know the number is wrong.  The drop BLS (and therefore Democrats) is touting is 30,000 fewer claims than last week, but without that other state, the number is almost certainly much, much higher than that.

Analysts aren't buying the number, and they're not trusting it. 
“We’re not sure what to think,” BTIG analyst Dan Greenhaus wrote.

“Throw out the number and we’ll try again next week,” Miller Tabak strategist Peter Boockvar wrote.

So, in summation, a jobless rate and jobless claims numbers that would kill any other sitting President's re-election chances, and data that many industry experts believe is completely wrong, are being trumpeted by the Administration as proof that their their plan worked.

If this is working, can we try the other guy's plan?

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