Tuesday, October 9, 2012

New Poll- Romney + 10

That's actually a re-weighting the the IBD/TIPP that came out today.

According to friend of the Blog Dave_in_Florida, that's what happens in 2 of the 4 models when you re-weight the internals to reflect reasonable expectations.  Even the very generous 2008 turnout model predicts a 5 point Romney win.  Using the Rassmussen party Id for weighting results in an astounding Romney + 12.

Be sure to look into Dave's archives, he explains (with Math!) exactly the formula he uses to re-weight the polls.

Yes, it's probably an outlier.  Yes, the race is probably closer than that.  Right now, I just don't care.

Excuse me while I attend this schadenboner.

1 comment:

  1. Yep, its breaking so hard they cannot keep the lid on.